Smartphone Companies may use VR to get the Last Laugh in Connected Car Race

"BLCKSTRM" (BLCKSTRM)
03/07/2016 at 15:45 • Filed to: VR, AR, autonomony, autonomous cars, Google, Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, electronics, smartphone, Oculus, HoloLens

One of the big benefits of autonomous cars is the freedom to do anything - ANYTHING! - while being chauffeured by your self-driving car. Like playing patty-cake for example...

Or this...

To be honest, what most people will do is just waste the time - in the same way they waste time right now - on their phones!

One of the features electronics companies and carmakers both expect you to pony up for in the future is for big(ger), high resolution displays to consume your content.

In fact, it’s such a big bet that Apple ( !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ), Google ( !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ), Microsoft ( !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ), and Samsung are all getting into the automotive game.

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The trouble is, I don’t think anyone is thinking far enough ahead and connecting the dots with one of the other important things they’re working on - VR (and/or AR).

Modern VR as we know it is far newer than the smartphone revolution we’ve just experienced. And there is nothing to suggest the rate of improvement on the technology will be any slower than what we’ve seen in the wider PC market over the last several decades, or in the smartphone market over the last ten years.

And while ten years is an eternity in the consumer electronics space (remember, the iPhone isn’t yet a decade old), ten years is little more than a blink in the automotive market.

Samsung and Google launched smartphone-based “consumer” products in the last year. Oculus Rift and HTC/Valve Vive both also launch this year with first generation consumer products (tethered to gaming-spec PCs).

The experience so far is less than ideal.

The resolution is ok, but not great with a Samsung or LG Android phone with their 2K displays, and substantially worse on an iPhone with their far lower resolution 720p (6/6S) / 1080p (6+/6S+) displays.

There is enough inherent lag to cause motion sickness no matter how tough a user thinks they are, and no matter how carefully the experience is designed.

The Rift and Vive experiences are better in some ways, but worse in others. They have better motion tracking to reduce (but not eliminate) motion sickness, but are clearly NOT portable. And their displays are only little better than the 2k phone displays.

Are we there yet? Not even close. But the thing about the electronics industry is that it makes huge leaps every year. Which is a stark contrast to the auto industry’s 6-9 year product lifecycle.

VR experts are already predicting it will replace /coopt the smartphone within the next ten years.

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And if you thought Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Samsung were investing in the auto industry, you should check out what they’re doing with VR and AR.

Apple has bought several AR/VR companies, including one of the early AR pioneers named Metaio. Google led a $542 million round of funding for Magic Leap, who Tim Sweeney mentions above - it truly is amazing stuff. Microsoft announced HoloLens back in January 2015. And Samsung’s been working on VR far longer than they’ve had their partnership with Oculus that yielded the phone-based Gear VR accessory.

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Auto OEMs won’t even get though a full model cycle selling large displays in cars before realistic, immersive VR (probably driven by people’s phones) completely supplants it.

Apple is likely to not even get through an entire automotive product cycle before facing the challenge of buyers skipping the options sheet in favor of cheaper - and non-integrated - consumer electronics-based VR.

At the end of the day this is going to be like phone navigation supplanting built-in factory navigation all over again - but it will happen much faster this time.

It should come as no surprise that the players betting on the automotive space are hedging their bets (possibly without even realizing it yet) by also investing in VR/AR.

DISCUSSION (20)

Sam > BLCKSTRM
03/07/2016 at 16:00

I was shocked to hear that the HTC Vive sold 15,000 units in the first ten minutes .

On the automotive front, I think that the final goal is to basically have a living room that takes you to work.

BLCKSTRM > Sam
03/07/2016 at 16:05

1) No joke - me too.

2) Also true. But that’s my point - with vast, 360° high-definition VR available for far, far less than ticking that option box at the dealership, and upgradeable whenever you want - independent of buying a new car, it’s hard to make the case.

Especially at the beginning it will be expensive, and OEMs are notorious for charging way too much for things like this. They’ll price their own offerings out of the market before they even get going.

deekster_caddy > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 09:49

If VR really works out, the number of people who actually need to drive to work will drop dramatically. VR meetings will be the new thing. It will be like going to the virtual office inside that VR game. Second life? Can't recall the exact name. Anyway, with so many fewer drivers on the road, all commuting problems will be solved! Think THAT far into the future!

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 09:58

sooo going by the top pic were getting a vr ghost car so i can race err drive sensibly against myself on my dailly comute?

sweet

boneheadotto > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 09:59

I think we have already crossed that bridge on #2 where the phone provides the superior and upgradable experience. The introduction of Apple CarPlay and Andriod Auto has paved the way and i see no reason why those systems would not be updatable while the phone also updates its support. Sure its not VR but that tech properly kills the expensive in car nav system IMO.

The English Guy > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 10:22

Most people who get car sick get it from a disconnection between what they are visually focused on and what their senses feel from the car’s movement.

Most people who get sick playing VR get it from the disconnection between what they’re visually focused on and what their senses feel from not actually being in that world.

Let’s combine them! Brilliant!

I'll take my 2025 model with the hoseable interior, please.

The-Guy-They-Warned-You-About > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 10:53

I want AR games where I can blast the traffic idiots off the road while my car drives itself. I’d spend the entire trip clearing American roads of the vermin that infests it.

Better? The phones of those other cars all notify their operators that they suck at driving and have been blown up. (^_^)

My 2 Cents > The English Guy
03/08/2016 at 11:16

So, a Honda Element or Jeep or van?

Id go with the cargo van...Versatile.

TheBoze > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 11:17

I predict a lot of vomit everywhere.

My 2 Cents > The-Guy-They-Warned-You-About
03/08/2016 at 11:17

Youve never driven in the middle east i see.

Americans follow most rules, they dont even know rules exist!

Bakkster, touring car driver > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 13:31

They have better motion tracking to reduce (but not eliminate) motion sickness, but are clearly NOT portable. And their displays are only little better than the 2k phone displays.

I think most people are saying the final versions have practically eliminated motion sickness, at least as caused by the display itself. You can still design software that makes someone sick, but if it’s appropriately designed all but the most queasy individuals can use them in comfort (one Oculus exec famously suffered VR-sickness, and says he can use the consumer versions for hours at a time now).

I’ll quibble that the Rift/Vive screens are also much better than a cell phone screen. A cell has more pixels, but that’s only one measure of quality. By every other measure, they’re far superior (and current cables can’t handle any more data at 90Hz anyway).

I don’t see VR becoming a killer app for cars any time soon. AR, on the other hand, absolutely. Not only to increase the driver’s awareness of their surroundings and keeping them awake, but also to keep passengers entertained without being potential causes of motion sickness.

The-Guy-They-Warned-You-About > My 2 Cents
03/08/2016 at 14:14

I have in India. I know the “no rules” issue. Still doesn’t mean I don’t want to virtually blow away that rude idiot in the green Escape.

BLCKSTRM > boneheadotto
03/08/2016 at 15:12

I totally agree.

VR is just the next step of that same principle.

Currently there are VERY few automotive displays at even 720p.

By the time cars are autonomous enough that OEMs start doing full 1080p in decent sizes (still only talking 10" iPad size here), I think it will be too late. Take rate will be terrible because of the proliferation of not just VR, but consumer electronics in general.

I WILL concede that there will always be some takers, especially in larger cars where it would be family movie time every time you take a trip.

But even that breaks down. You can only take a constant barrage of kids movies for so long.

BLCKSTRM > Bakkster, touring car driver
03/08/2016 at 15:24

Yes - you are right about all of the above. I do think there will always be some measure of motion sickness, even if it’s just due to the car movement.

And AR is likely to solve that nearly completely, and is clearly the better technology. It is what Google and Apple are most clearly working towards.

BLCKSTRM > farscythe - makin da cawfee!
03/08/2016 at 15:26

That’s a Jaguar concept. Though I fully endorse someone making that app for the future VR/AR masses!

My 2 Cents > The-Guy-They-Warned-You-About
03/08/2016 at 15:45

That was me...Sorry.

-Guy in Green Escape

Bakkster, touring car driver > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 15:59

I wouldn’t consider AR superior, it’s just different technology for a different purpose. For cars I expect it will be better because it allows you to see what’s around you, reducing the chance of motion sickness while on a moving platform. For home use, I expect VR will be more prevalent specifically because it blocks your vision from everything in the room (and the last thing you want to see while playing Elite or iRacing is your couch).

BLCKSTRM > Bakkster, touring car driver
03/08/2016 at 20:05

We generally think of VR as entertainment focused, while AR is more productivity focused.

But the beauty of AR is in the ability to do both, especially once some of the more advanced tech comes into being (like what Magic Leap is working on).

I do admit that especially for gaming, and to a large extent for other forms of pure entertainment, VR is both cleaner and also far, far easier. And it IS possible to do AR with a VR device, too.

It will likely come down to which works better more of the time, since people are unlikely (in general) to have both (gamers being the major exception).

Definitely the wild west right now no matter how you look at it.

Bakkster, touring car driver > BLCKSTRM
03/08/2016 at 22:40

Don’t get me wrong, AR gaming will be big. However, when you’re looking at porting games, or sit down at home gaming, I think VR will remain king. AR will be to VR like mobile gaming is to consoles, an alternative that tends to be engaged in more outside the home.

The-Guy-They-Warned-You-About > My 2 Cents
03/09/2016 at 10:00

Touche’!

I seriously doubt anyone on Oppo would have been belching that much oil smoke. (^_^)